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...but the rest of the world is not far

The world is facing its greatest man-made threat ever – climate change - and Africa is set to be its biggest target and greatest tragedy.

Africa has contributed less than any other region to the greenhouse gas emissions that are widely held responsible for global warming, yet the continent is also the most vulnerable to the consequences.

Many researchers have already warned that a three-degree Celsius rise in temperature over the next century will increase the risk of drought, wildfires and forest loss in many parts of the developing world.

They also warn that the increased periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean known as El Niño and a similar phenomenon called the North Atlantic Oscillation effect threatens food supplies for millions of Africans by reducing crop yields.

DANGER

Even the African savannahs – broad grasslands with scattered trees - which are both economically important and ecologically unique, are in danger of disappearing.

Biodiversity, which is inextricably linked to climate, would be seriously affected and Africa’s thousands of plant species, including its medicinal plants that so many Africans rely on, would be seriously eroded and/or shifted.

All the predictions indicate that places like the Kalahari desert will get hotter and drier, sand dunes will become unstable and vegetation for grazing will become scarce. This loss of vegetation as a result of climate change will be disastrous for African farmers, whose livestock depend on plants for grazing.

Sir Nicholas Stern’s report on the economics of climate change published on October 30 suggests that world output could be up to a fifth lower as a result of climate change, and nowhere else would this be greatest felt than in Africa.

According to the data: “…in terms of GDP, India and Africa together are expected to loose 10 times more from climate change than the US and 20 times more than China…”.

Furthermore, Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth indicates that the US - which contributes 30.3% to global warming compared to 2.5% by Africa - is responsible for more greenhouse gas pollution than South America, Africa, the Middle East, Australia, Japan and Asia, combined.

The two ways that climate change has already affected sub-Saharan Africa and costal regions along the Indian and Pacific Oceans are: directly through heat waves and droughts; and indirectly by increasing the spread of infectious diseases.

So its not just a threat to the future, a 2003 World Health Organisation report claims that 150,000 people are dying now from the effects of global warming.

SCARCITY

Global energy use is climbing and its scarcity means that prices are rising fast and it is this hike in prices that will affect the UK’s poorest and those who live in our most deprived neighbourhoods’ worst, whom paradoxically have the least green spaces and major polluted roads running through them.

Through our daily human activities we are routinely releasing methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and some industrially produced gases into the atmosphere. Increased emissions of all these gases are leading to a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Carbon dioxide is accumulating faster than at any time over the past 20,000 years. And in the immediate future, rates of increase in global temperatures are expected to be the greatest for the last 10,000 years. Put simply, global warming represents the greatest single threat to humanity and time is running out.

Our superficial needs and desire for luxury, comfort and anything fast, is literally killing the earth and while for some ‘black lives are cheap’, once Africa is gone, its only a matter of time for other countries to follow suit as the maps of the world will literally have to be redrawn.

Yet, paradoxically Africa as a great continent has equally great renewable resources to contribute, for example solar energy piped from the Sahara.

Establishing targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions, developing renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, non-polluting transport systems and technologies to capture and store carbon emissions from coal-fired power stations are all suggested as part of the solution.

If we are to make dramatic changes and avert a catastrophe our general quality of life doesn’t really have to alter, it’s simply our habits and the way we do things that have to change. Replacing just one incandescent light bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp would save 500 pounds of coal and more than half a ton of carbon dioxide emissions. Conservation is probably our greatest source of alternative energy.

New scientific consensus suggests that we only have a few years before the world tips into what may be irreversible climate change and thus it is clear that we all need to change the way we live, work and travel.

However, the greatest change has to come via political leadership in the form of carbon taxes, trading, targets and timetables and implemented by businesses, individuals and local decision makers.

In the UK we are experiencing a relatively favourable economic period. However, during periods of instability, uncertainty and downturn our resolve will need to be doubled. Curbing economic greed and excess has to be confronted. Sir Nicholas Stern’s report will help, but given the extent of contradictions, we should all sign up to the Friends of the Earth lobby to force government to introduce mandatory laws to reduce greenhouse emissions annually.

We all have an individual contribution to make and working together with the three nexus of power; politicians, businesses and the media and doing things differently may well save Africa and the rest of us yet.

Published: 14 November 2006
Issue: 1244

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