ON MAY 6 across England, Wales and Scotland, we have mayoral elections, Welsh Assembly/government elections, Scottish Parliament elections, along with elections for 39 Police and Crime Commissioners in England, a parliamentary by-election in Hartlepool and up to 6,000 councillors in England. These elections will be seen as a litmus test on Sir Keir Starmer. Whilst the predictions for May are gloomy for Mr Starmer, he could still yet navigate a path to 10 Downing Street.

Shades of Grey – Keir the reluctant populist

With the decimation of the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn at the 2019 general election, the ‘stop the rise of the left’ candidate, Sir Keir, secured victory with a commitment to pull the Labour Party back to the centre ground and win back Red Wall seats and seats taken by the Greens and Lib Dems. As my mentor, the Late Philip Gould of Brookwood told me, the centre ground is where the party needs to be. The first challenge which faced Sir Keir when he became the leader of the Labour Party was internal. Even during the tenure of the most successful British prime minister of our time, Tony Blair, the party was hell bent on internecine warfare.

Left- and right-wing factionalism exists in every political party, but the Labour party has long battled with its left wing. Sir Keir’s equivalent Clause 4 moment was the defenestration of Mr Corbyn and others on the left, because, not only was Mr Corbyn the physical embodi-ment of the Labour Party’s left, but paradoxically, Mr Corbyn secured the largest mandate ever won by a party leader and his victory saw 350,000+ new members join its ranks. Having previously worked so closely with him, it could be argued that Sir Keir pushing Mr Corbyn out of the party was him playing the man, not the ball: with the result of entrenching the left/right divide in the party and in the mind of the public.

The right of the party and the media supported Sir Keir in stamping his authority on the party, but just as a pet boa constrictor stretches out alongside its keeper, seemingly adoringly, the constrictor is in reality measuring the keeper for lunch. Sir Keir needs to be mindful about the pull from both wings of the party because, as night follows day, the adoring constrictor will turn on him when it has gauged the cut of your jib.

The present and the future

Sir Keir’s speech on February 18 this year was to reset and frame Labour’s attack on 11 years of Conservative-led government. He convincingly stated that 10 years of austerity and year-on-year cuts had left the NHS and other public services unable to properly function.

His clarion call was that radical reform on the scale of 1945 was needed. He was on to something, as most
people would agree that something is wrong with the management and funding of our public services. Polls, however, showed that Sir Keir’s message was not positively received. This was more to do with the timing than the message. In a time of crisis people will “hold on to nurse, for fear of worse” and so it was always going to be an uphill struggle for him to break through the wall of COVID fear and uncertainty. His message was also stilted by the ninja-like moves of the Conservative government as it counter-attacked by political cross-dressing and announcing its fiscal expansion in the budget and they began debating policing, immigration and defence, which took the wind out of his sails.

The vacuum on the left

With 127,000+ deaths from COVID-19, there is no doubt that the government has blundered and made many missteps in response to the pandemic. It seems however, that with the successful planning and rollout of the vaccine, the media and the public have forgiven the government for its litany of errors.

Against this backdrop, Mr Starmer has an uphill struggle to differentiate himself. His advisors appear out of touch, inward-looking and do not understand what the electorate wants, let alone how to ameliorate Labour’s internal turf war.

There is still time for Sir Keir to turn the ship and chart a course for Number 10. Can he stave off the predicted losses that political pundits are signalling on May 6 and beyond? There is a growing feeling across the membership that Sir Keir may be the man to rekindle their fortunes, but he has not as yet found his voice, his authenticity or his mission. The real Sir Keir is being smothered and an air of competency from his front bench is lacking.

Mr Starmer has two superpowers; firstly, he is the kryptonite to the left; secondly, his forensic approach at the despatch box has been an asset but it is quickly turning into his Achilles heel, because his opponent, Boris Johnson, is like Bruce Lee — he is “shapeless like water”.Boris is the thing which discombobulates an organised and structured opponent who approaches work with clinical, rather than emotional and tactile intelligence. There is still time for Sir Keir to turn his fortunes around.

The conjuring trick which Mr Starmer needs to pull off now is to reunite the Labour Party around a common theme and a progressive centrist agenda and to change the narrative that the Labour Party is not fit to hold power.

There is a vacuum on the centre left of British politics. If Sir Keir performs poorly in the upcoming elections, he can still beat a path to Number 10.

Dr Floyd Millen is a political scientist and a former special adviser to the Cabinet Office and the founder of the first BME-owned public affairs think tank Yes Minister. Dr Millen was mentored by the former home secretary Charles Clarke and studied under the Conservative peer, Professor the Lord Norton of Louth.